7月宏观月报：关税效应进入“数据验证期”-20250713

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June, the overseas market saw a resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade, while domestic market sentiment was buoyed by a mild economic recovery[1] - The "Goldilocks" trade was driven by three factors: successful implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," lower-than-expected inflation data in May, and resilient employment data despite a mild economic slowdown[2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.3% since July 7, while the US dollar rebounded by 0.9%[5] Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - Domestic economic recovery was supported by effective consumption policies, with retail sales growth in May reaching a new high since 2024[3] - The core CPI in June rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating sustained domestic demand release[3] - Manufacturing PMI in June exceeded expectations, with domestic orders recovering faster than new export orders[3] Group 3: Key Concerns for July - Overseas, the focus shifted to potential inflation risks, with rising retail prices and manufacturing price indices indicating upward inflation pressure in the US[4] - Domestic attention remains on "anti-involution" policies aimed at balancing supply and demand, with a focus on structural upgrades in industries[4] - The US announced tariff increases on 14 countries effective August 1, with rates including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and 30% on South Africa[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls in June adding 147,000 jobs, primarily supported by government sectors[3][4] - The US fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to reach $804.4 billion, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years[5]