农产品策略周报-20250713

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils fluctuated and declined. Palm oil had the largest decline among the three major oils due to factors such as OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production, the negative impact of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook, and a bearish MPOB report. Soybean oil had a relatively small decline in the oils due to the impact of US tariff policies on increasing the cost of domestic soybean imports. In the future, as a large number of soybeans arrive at ports and the oil mill operating rate increases, the shortage of domestic soybean oil will soon be alleviated. Against the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil, the demand outlook for palm oil as biodiesel is limited. Coupled with the current entry into the production - increasing cycle, there is a need for the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil to return, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][10]. - For the feed sector, the USDA supply - demand report this month did not make major adjustments to South America. Brazil's bumper harvest pattern is set, and the large - scale arrival of soybeans starting from April will still bring certain supply pressure to the domestic market. However, the report significantly increased the domestic soybean crushing demand in the US, which also reflects that under the current tariff policy, the import volume of US oils may decline, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil consumption in the US. The CBOT US soybean price also rebounded after a decline. Domestically, it is currently the window period for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian premium has remained firm under the influence of tariff policies, which supports the import cost to a certain extent, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is still large, and the domestic downstream supply is not tight in the short term. Future policy changes and domestic soybean arrival situations need to be focused on [12]. - In the pig market, the supply side is expected to remain stable in the future, with no significant changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The consumption side shows weak growth in slaughter data and synchronous growth in frozen product inventory, with large resistance in white - striped pork sales and weak consumption. It is expected that the consumption side may decline slightly in the future. Overall, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the pig market, and the price is expected to fluctuate steadily. As the delivery month approaches, the basis of near - month contracts may converge. At the current price, the probability of large - scale entry of secondary fattening is not high, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate [14]. - For the cotton market, the short - term risks of the cotton futures market have been cleared, but the macro uncertainty is still high, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Domestically, the short - term supply is still abundant, and the expected cotton - planting area in the new year is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance is still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. Internationally, the April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, with a neutral - to - bearish overall adjustment. As the Northern Hemisphere enters the sowing season and the expectation of reduced planting in the new year of US cotton increases, attention has gradually shifted to the new - season supply, and the drought situation in the main US cotton - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored [16]. - Regarding the sugar market, short - term international sugar prices are still strongly supported, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, the sugar price may still be under pressure. The short - term focus is on the weather and the start of the crushing season in Brazil, as well as the weather in Guangxi and the import rhythm in China [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategy - Supply: The weekly national oil mill imported soybean crushing volume was 1.0301 million tons, with a decrease in soybean crushing, and the imported rapeseed crushing was 70,000 tons, with a decrease in rapeseed crushing. The oil mill's expected operating rate this week was slightly reduced, and the crushing volume decreased. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of the oil mill was 1.0301 million tons, and the operating rate was 28.96%. The sample showed that the inventory of breeding sows in March was 5.0484 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.08%; the elimination volume of breeding sows in March was 97,826 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%; the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in March was 10.3928 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 17.43%. According to the Cotton Information Network, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of March was 4.8396 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.24%, 19,800 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 0.41%. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had all stopped production. The total national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons, an increase of 12.27% [9][12][15]. - Demand: The weekly national spot trading volume of palm oil was 5,299 tons, soybean oil was 145,000 tons, and rapeseed oil pick - up was 8,300 tons. Palm oil and soybean oil increased, while rapeseed oil decreased. The national soybean meal trading volume this week was 1.3546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 270,900 tons, an average daily month - on - month increase of 141,800 tons. This week, the slaughter data of pigs showed weak growth, and the frozen product inventory also increased synchronously. The downstream performance of the cotton market was still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. As of the end of March, the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.33 percentage points [9][12]. - Inventory: The weekly port palm oil inventory increased to 373,400 tons, the oil mill soybean oil inventory decreased to 791,200 tons, and the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 127,000 tons. This week, the oil mill's inventory was 791,200 tons, a decrease of 47,900 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 31,300 tons, an increase from last week. This week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.38%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. This week, the raw material inventory of yarn mills increased slightly, and the finished - product cotton yarn inventory increased slightly; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills decreased slightly, and the all - cotton grey fabric inventory continued to increase. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national monthly industrial sugar inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [9][12][15]. - Basis: The spot basis includes North China first - grade soybean oil Y05 + 324, East China fourth - grade rapeseed oil OI05 + 95, and South China 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 266. The spot basis of soybean meal in South China is M05 - 114, and that of rapeseed meal in Fujian is RM05 + 1. The spot basis of live pigs in Henan is LH05 + 455. As of this Friday, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 424 yuan/ton. The spot basis is CF05 + 1405, a month - on - month increase of 276. The national weighted average spot price of cotton is 14,275 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 627 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is CF05 + 1465, a month - on - month increase of 73. As of this Friday, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is SR05 + 84, a month - on - month increase of 13 [9][12][15]. - Profit: This week, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil for April shipments was - 699 yuan/ton. This week, the on - paper gross profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipments was 265 (with a premium of 175), and the on - paper crushing gross profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipments was 284. As of April 10, the self - breeding and self - raising profit this week was 129.30 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan/head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 65.80 yuan/head, a loss of 39.06 yuan/head compared with last week. As of April 10, the national immediate spinning profit of 32s pure - cotton ring - spun yarn was - 297.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 723.1 yuan/ton from last week. On April 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,665 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 294 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,782 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 450 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. - Cost: According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 to 10 was 211,252 tons, a decrease of 6.63% compared with the export volume of 226,247 tons in the same period last month. The MPOB data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.31 million tons; the palm oil import was 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; the palm oil export was 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 1.02 million tons; the palm oil inventory was 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.56 million tons. This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated steadily. As of April 10, the closing price of US soybeans was 1,035.50 cents per bushel. As of April 10, the average cost of secondary fattening this week was 14.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the pig - to - grain ratio was 6.46:1. The Cotlook:A index: 1% tariff price was reported at 13,825 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 328 was reported at 14,275 yuan/ton, with an internal - external cotton price difference of 450 yuan/ton. On April 11, the processed cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar (with a premium of 0.69) in China was about 4,884 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,255 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the processed cost of imported Thai raw sugar (with a premium of 0.88) was about 4,765 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,099 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. 3.2 Oilseeds Sector Supply and Demand - Palm Oil: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of palm oil, as well as the supply and demand data of GAPKI and MPOB palm oil, and the direct import volume of China's three major oils, domestic oil mill crushing, production, and inventory [23][56][59]. - Soybean Oil: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of soybean oil [37][41]. - Rapeseed Oil: Analyzed the basis, spread, import cost, and profit of rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in Guangdong [47][53]. 3.3 Feed Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, price difference, and profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the import volume of oilseeds and meal, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal production, and inventory [72][88][91]. 3.4 Pig Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, monthly supply and demand, weekly profit, and weekly pig - to - grain ratio of live pigs [100][107][110]. 3.5 Cotton Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, supply and demand (including import volume, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, factory load, inventory, and retail and export data), and global and regional supply and demand of cotton [122][129][151]. 3.6 Sugar Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the price, basis, and supply and demand (including domestic and international production, inventory, import, and export data) of sugar [161][167][169].