宏观周报(7月7日-7月13日)：上半年收官，关注政策接续-20250713

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In the first week of July, passenger car sales reached 238,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth was 0.8% year-on-year and 4.76% month-on-month as of July 11[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1465.4, down 12.5% month-on-month and down 23.5% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery this week[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 13, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 83.44%[3] - Cement shipment rate was 39.9%, indicating continued weakness in real estate and infrastructure[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires in the automotive sector increased by 5.39 percentage points to 71.67%[2] Price Performance - As of July 11, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 1.12% week-on-week, while the price of eggs fell by 1.49%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.17% and 1.90% respectively, indicating a continued upward trend in oil prices[3] - Copper prices surged by 6.13% as a result of the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by Trump[3] Fiscal and Investment Insights - This week, the issuance of general government bonds reached 193.1 billion, with a progress rate of 59.4%[3] - New local bonds issued amounted to 21.6 billion, with a progress rate of 58.4%[3] - The cement shipment rate showed a slight decline, while the asphalt operating rate continued to rise, indicating stable construction activity[3] International Trade and Policy Risks - Trump has threatened to reintroduce large-scale tariffs on August 1, potentially raising effective tariff rates back to around 20%[2] - The proposed tariffs include a 50% tariff on copper and potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with drug tariffs possibly reaching 200%[3] - The effective tariff rate for the EU could increase from 20% to 30%, and for Canada from 25% to 35%[3]