品种久期跟踪：久期的极限位

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weighted average trading durations of mainstream bond varieties are approaching their peaks again. As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and insurance company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and this week decreased slightly compared to last week, currently at the 17.8% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 All - Variety Duration Overview - As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively [2][10]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovers around 2.44 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in Guangdong prefecture - level cities and Hebei provincial - level are over 5 years, while the trading duration of Shanxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.35 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, and Chongqing district - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration has slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 3.77 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry has shortened to 1.78 years, while that of the public utilities industry has lengthened to 4.62 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, and building materials are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 2.95 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.16 years, at the 92.4% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has lengthened to 3.74 years, at the 68.3% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 79%, 23%, 16%, and 68% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds have slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][25].