甲醇产业链周报：供需矛盾不大，甲醇偏弱震荡-20250713

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Although the recent sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the rebound is mainly concentrated in the black and new energy - related industries. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking the logic for valuation repair, so its performance is dull. With the cooling of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the end of the squeeze on port paper goods, the spot liquidity is no longer tight, the spot price has fallen, and methanol has entered a weak and volatile state. The fundamentals of methanol have changed little, with high supply pressure due to high - profit - stimulated upstream production and weak downstream demand growth, making the overall situation of methanol weak. It is recommended to beware of the risk of correction [3][85] - Unilateral strategy: Weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; Hedge strategy: Wait and see [4][86] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quotation was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 30 yuan/ton [8] 2. Basis and Spread - Basis Quotation: The methanol basis quotation fluctuated weakly this week, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 35 yuan/ton [18] - Regional Basis: The coastal basis of methanol fluctuated this week, and the inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market price and the market price in the northwest region fluctuated this week [25][30] - Regional Spread: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [42] - Near - and Far - Month Spread: It is recommended to wait and see for the spread for now [50] - PP - 3MA Spread: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [56] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - Methanol Production: There are many new overhaul devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many overhaul devices have resumed production, and the methanol output has started to increase [62][66] - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rate of dimethyl ether fluctuated weakly, the operating rate of formaldehyde fluctuated, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [73] - MTO: This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and the MTO profit rebounded significantly [76] 4. Market Expectation - Methanol will be in a weak and volatile state, and it is necessary to beware of the risk of correction. The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; the hedge strategy is to wait and see [3][4][85][86]