汽车周观点：7月第1周乘用车环比-30.2%，继续看好汽车板块-20250713

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by innovation and market dynamics [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from three main themes: dividends, AI intelligence, and robotics, with a recommendation to increase exposure to dividend-focused stocks in the second half of the year [5]. - The report highlights a significant drop in passenger car insurance registrations, with a week-on-week decrease of 30.2%, but a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2][48]. - The report anticipates a total retail sales volume of 23.69 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [49]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of July, the total number of compulsory insurance registrations for passenger cars was 398,000, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 30.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1% [2][48]. - The performance of various segments showed that automotive parts outperformed other categories, with a slight increase of 0.1% [2]. Industry Changes - Key developments include the scheduled launch of the Li Auto i8 on July 29 and the expected net profit of 2.7 to 3.2 billion yuan for Seres in the first half of 2025, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [3][5]. - The report notes the introduction of new models, such as the Leap Motor C11, and the upcoming annual meeting of the China Automotive Research Institute [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 30th in A-shares and 11th in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with the automotive parts sector showing the best performance [9][16]. - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the automotive parts sector has increased, while other segments have seen declines [35]. Future Outlook - The report predicts that the demand for passenger vehicles will remain strong due to policies encouraging vehicle replacement and upgrades, estimating a contribution of 1 to 1.7 million additional units in sales [49]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth expected in both domestic and export markets [50][57].