本轮地产行情还有多大空间？

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current real estate market is experiencing a phase of valuation recovery, supported by policy expectations, with potential for further upside in the coming weeks [3][7][24] - The banking sector is expected to maintain a trend of upward momentum, driven by high dividend yields and stable operational logic, despite recent market fluctuations [6][21][23] Market Perspectives - The upcoming economic data release on July 15 is anticipated to show resilience, with GDP growth expected to be in the range of 5.1% to 5.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [4][14][18] - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a potential for mild price improvements, which could positively impact the market if the GDP growth exceeds expectations [4][14][15] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is projected to see a significant increase in dividend yields, with short-term expectations of a rise of 0.3% to 0.62% before August, and a further increase of 0.6% to 1.21% by early 2026 [6][21][23] - The real estate sector is currently in a typical down-cycle phase, with historical patterns suggesting a potential for a 5% to 15% increase in the index over the next month, driven by policy easing [7][24][26] Specific Opportunities - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Banks and insurance companies with strong dividend stability and long-term capital inflow [30] 2. Real estate stocks benefiting from anticipated policy easing [30] 3. Sectors with robust demand support, including rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural chemicals [31]