宏观与大类资产周报：全球权益轮动，港股或为下阶段焦点-20250713

Domestic Economic Insights - The economic growth rate in the first half of the year significantly exceeded the annual target, providing a window for structural adjustments in policies[1] - Recent policies such as the suspension of "national subsidies" and the halt of "high-interest high-return" policies have notably impacted the automotive supply chain, with both supply and demand showing clear signs of decline[1] - As of July 13, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is significantly lower than the same period last year, and the growth rate of automobile sales continues to decline[1] Export and Trade Dynamics - High-frequency data indicates that June exports may still be relatively strong, with container throughput rebounding since late June, likely related to the upcoming suspension of tariffs on August 10[1] - The potential for short-term exemptions or reductions in tariffs on fentanyl between China and Mexico has emerged, indicating a trend towards cooperation[1] Global Market Trends - The current "strong US stock market + weak dollar" scenario is expected to boost risk appetite and liquidity in non-US equities, with the dollar remaining weak as long as it stays within the 95-100 range[2] - Global equity markets have shown a rotation pattern this year, with indices like Germany's DAX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Technology leading the way, suggesting a potential upward breakout for the Hang Seng Technology index in the coming weeks[2] Key Upcoming Events - Important dates to watch include the release of the US June CPI data on July 15, Q2 earnings reports for US stocks from mid-July to early August, and changes in US tariffs on August 1 and 10[1]