盘面转入震荡整理，下游买盘陆续释放

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trends of lithium carbonate as "oscillating", with an amplitude of - 5% - +5% [51]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate strongly due to the better - than - expected demand in the off - season, the rapid increase of ore prices following the market, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts. In the long term, the market may return to a downward channel under the pressure of over - supply [2][3]. - The supply - side pressure is limited. During the rebound, the profit margin of the lithium salt processing link did not significantly increase, and the import pressure has decreased in the past two months. The focus of market competition lies in the demand side, and the trading situation in the spot market needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying at low prices and positive spreads in the short term, while waiting for a more suitable time to enter the market for medium - term short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Turns to Oscillation and Consolidation, and Downstream Buying Orders Are Gradually Released - Last week (07/07 - 07/11), lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 changed by - 1.2% and +1.6% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. The decline of lithium hydroxide narrowed. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened to 0.63 million yuan/ton [2][12]. - The market rebounded rapidly to the 65,000 - yuan level and then oscillated narrowly between 64,000 - 65,000 yuan. Due to the lag in price adjustment by third - party quotation agencies, the downstream's fear of purchasing increased, and the basis weakened. After the market entered the oscillation phase, downstream inquiries and transactions increased, indicating that the demand in the off - season was better than expected [2]. - Looking forward, the supply - side pressure is limited. The profit window of the lithium salt processing link has not significantly opened, and the import pressure has decreased. The focus of market competition is on the demand side [3]. 3.2. Weekly Review of Industry News - Hunan Chenzhou discovered 490 million tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with 490 million tons of lithium ore and 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [16]. - Premier restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe. After improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate, Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe on July 6, with an estimated mineral resource of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide [16]. - In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China increased by 47.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.9%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3% [17]. - The previously restarted production capacity continued to be released, and the output of lithium carbonate increased in June. In June, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned output for July is 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% [17]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continued to Rebound - The spot average price of lithium concentrate showed an upward trend [18]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract and the term structure showed certain fluctuations [21]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Increased - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a slight upward trend [13]. 3.3.4. Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicles Continued to Reduce Inventory in June - In June, the new energy vehicle market in China continued the inventory reduction trend, and relevant indicators such as production, sales, and penetration rate were monitored [41].