周观：如何看待“股债跷跷板”效应对债市的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - Trend of US Treasury Yields: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - Market Operations: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - Interest Rates: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Real - Estate Market: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - Commodity Prices: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - Regional Distribution: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading Volume: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - Yield Changes: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total Issuance: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - By Bond Type: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].