新疆大厂复产不及预期，光伏反内卷关注落地情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large factories in Xinjiang will have a significant impact on the fundamentals of industrial silicon. The failure of large factories in Xinjiang to resume production as expected has led to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon. For polysilicon, in response to the government's "anti - involution" policy, polysilicon enterprises have raised their offers, but the actual transactions are yet to be seen. The price increase of polysilicon depends on the implementation of production cuts and the price increase of downstream products [2][3] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds and wait for right - hand signals. For polysilicon, although it is generally bullish, short - term callback risks should be noted, and attention can be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 435 yuan/ton to 8415 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 5820 yuan/ton to 41330 yuan/ton. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material this week increased by 2400 yuan/ton to 37100 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories' Resumption of Production Falling Short of Expectations, and Attention to the Implementation of PV Anti - Involution Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose significantly. The weekly output was 72,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month - on - month, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons month - on - month. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, industrial silicon may have a monthly de - stocking of 60,000 tons. If it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may have a monthly inventory build - up of 30,000 tons. The market transaction price of 99 silicon powder rose to about 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [12] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon bottomed out and rebounded. The overall enterprise operating rate this week was 70.9%, the weekly output was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, and the inventory was 48,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41% [12][13] Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures continued to rise sharply. The quoted price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material ranges from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, but there are no actual transactions yet. It is expected that the polysilicon production schedule in July will increase to 110,000 tons, and it will enter a monthly inventory build - up state. As of July 10, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 276,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [13] Silicon Wafers - This week, the quoted price of silicon wafers was significantly increased, but there were no market transactions yet. The production schedule in July is expected to be 52GW, a month - on - month decrease of more than 10%. As of July 10, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 18.13GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09GW [14] Battery Cells - This week, the quoted price of battery cells was significantly increased. The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to be 54GW, still in an oversupply state. As of July 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.86GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.33GW [15] Components - This week, the component price was stalemate. The 7 - month component production schedule is expected to be 45GW. The difficulty in component price increase lies in its lag and the preferential issues in downstream actual procurement [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds of industrial silicon. Observing right - hand signals such as large factories' resumption of production and warehouse receipt registration may be safer [17] Polysilicon - Generally, a bullish view is taken on polysilicon, but short - term callback risks should be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [17] 3.4 Hot News Collation - From the settlement on July 14, 2025, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10% [18] - Hongyuan Green Energy intends to participate in the pre - reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. Its subsidiary will cooperate with Wuxi Suntech for production and operation management [18] - Runyang's Yunnan base resumed full - load production in 10 days, breaking the industry record [18]