信用债市场周观察：寻找收益率曲线的“凸点”

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of July, the bond market sentiment was affected by the "stock - bond seesaw" but the fluctuations were controllable due to strong post - quarter bond allocation demand. In Q3, for coupon - bearing bonds, it is recommended to maintain duration, do more credit - quality sinking within 3Y, extend duration to 5Y in regions with stronger credit quality, and participate in ultra - long - term credit bonds with a trading mindset (it's time to take profit in a timely manner) [2][9]. - Short - term urban investment bonds are the preferred choice for the bottom - position portfolio. Provinces with thick 3Y - 1Y term spreads include Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, and Yunnan, where investors can find individual bonds with higher yields around 3Y for 10 - 20bp additional returns. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the first choices for mainstream institutions to extend duration to 5Y, and Henan also has large potential [6][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Finding the "Convex Point" of the Yield Curve - 3Y - 1Y Term Spread Analysis: - In high - quality regions, Jiangsu's 3Y valuation is relatively high, suitable for low - risk - preference institutions. - In central provinces, only Henan has large historical fluctuations and thick current spreads; core entities like Yu Airport Harbor can be appropriately allocated. - In provinces with some "internet - famous" regions, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Tianjin have high spreads, but mining may face resistance. - In other niche provinces, Xining Urban Construction Investment, Yinchuan Tonglian, and Gansu Communications Construction have slightly high 3Y valuations [6][9]. - 5Y - 3Y Term Spread Analysis: - In high - quality regions, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have larger fluctuations, about 5bp lower than Beijing and Shanghai, suitable for low - risk - preference institutions to enhance returns slightly. - In central provinces, Henan and Hunan have large historical fluctuations. Henan's 5Y urban investment bonds (e.g., Luoyang Guosheng, Sanmenxia Investment) still have potential. - In regions with more negative information, Yunnan's 5Y yields are significantly high (mainly Yunnan Construction and Investment). - In niche provinces, 5Y - 3Y term spreads are mostly around 20 - 30bp, with few opportunities [6][15][17]. 2. Credit Bond Weekly Review: Fluctuations in the Second Half of the Week, but Strong Allocation Power 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - Bond Default and Overdue: There were no bond defaults or overdue events this week [22]. - Subject Rating or Outlook Downgrade: Zhengzhou Coal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd.'s subject rating was downgraded from BB+ to BB by Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. on July 9, 2025 [24]. - Debt - Item Rating Downgrade: On July 9, 2025, the debt - item ratings of "22 Shenshan Investment MTN001" and "15 Zhengmei MTN001" were downgraded [24]. - Overseas Rating Downgrade: There were no overseas rating downgrades this week [24]. - Major Negative Events: Many companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Zheng Rong Real Estate, and others had major negative events including debt defaults, lawsuits, and regulatory warnings [25]. 2.2 Primary Issuance - Issuance and Net Financing: From July 7 to July 13, the primary issuance of credit bonds increased by nearly 70 billion yuan compared with the previous period, and the total repayment amount also increased to 199.1 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 88.3 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous period [25]. - Cancellation or Postponement of Issuance: Only 3 credit bonds with a total scale of 4 billion yuan were cancelled or postponed this week, returning to the medium - level this year [26]. - Issuance Cost: Last week, the average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ were 2.07% and 2.21% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the AA+ level decreased by 29bp, while the AAA level increased by 8bp. The issuance frequency of new AA/AA - level bonds remained low [29]. 2.3 Secondary Trading - Valuation and Spread: The valuations of all - grade credit bonds fluctuated within ±3bp, with short - term yields decreasing and long - term yields increasing. Credit spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a central value of about 3bp. The term spreads of all grades widened, with medium - and high - grade spreads widening more (3 - 4bp), and the grade spreads of all terms compressed, with lower - grade spreads narrowing more [31][33]. - Liquidity: The liquidity of credit bonds continued to weaken slightly, with the turnover rate decreasing by 0.24 percentage points to 1.91%. The top - ten turnover bonds were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. There were 8 credit bonds with a discount of more than 10%, mainly concentrated in some real - estate enterprises and individual rural commercial banks [39]. - Single - Subject Valuation Changes: Among urban investment bonds, the distribution of entities with significant spread narrowing or widening was scattered. Among industrial bonds, the top five entities with widening spreads were all real - estate enterprises, including Country Garden, Rongqiao, etc. [41].