地方债周度跟踪：发行和净融资环比提升，减国债利差持续收窄-20250713

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period have both increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that both will continue to rise in the next period. As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2023. The spread between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and Treasury bonds has narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month - on - month. Currently, the spread exploration space for local government bonds is shrinking, but they still have certain allocation and trading value for different institutions [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - In the current period (2025.07.07 - 2025.07.13), local government bonds issued a total of 231.79 billion yuan and had a net financing of 107.789 billion yuan (the previous period was 72.139 billion yuan/21.676 billion yuan). The next period (2025.07.14 - 2025.07.20) is expected to issue 251.183 billion yuan and have a net financing of 152.933 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 14.17 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.63 years [4][14]. - As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 58.3% and 50.6% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 61.7% and 54.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.5%/39.4% and 48.8%/40.2%, and in 2023 it was 62.2%/57.2% and 62.7%/57.6% [6][23]. - 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance of local government bonds from July to September 2025 totals 257.75 billion yuan, including 140.48 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 519.5 billion yuan (54.7 billion yuan issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1,824.6 billion yuan (28.6 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 91.2% [6][27]. 3.2 In this period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and Treasury bonds have both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month - on - month - As of July 11, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds were 11.47BP and 16.59BP respectively, narrowing by 1.20BP and 0.25BP compared to July 4, 2025. They are at the 8.90% and 64.80% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.71%, a month - on - month decrease from the previous period's 1.04% [6][33][34]. - The current spread exploration space for local government bonds is shrinking. For institutions such as bank self - operation, insurance, and securities firm self - operation, local government bonds have certain allocation value, especially those with a term of 7 years and above, with 15/30 - year bonds being more cost - effective. For public funds and other institutions, local government bonds still have trading value, and it is recommended to focus on 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year local government bonds [6].