近期市场反馈及思考4：债市“走楼梯”行情下的困境与破局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the bond market is currently experiencing a "stair-step" trend characterized by low interest rates and low spreads, leading to a weak configuration power and limited trading opportunities [10][12][14] - The report highlights that the long-end interest rates are not being constrained by funding rates or deposit rates, but rather by a rising risk appetite and asset pricing effects [12][14] - The report discusses the importance of exploring small strategies within the bond market under the "stair-step" trend, suggesting that new factors such as further rate cuts or central bank purchases of government bonds are needed to break the current stagnation [10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that long-end credit bonds have recently performed well due to market rotation and supply-demand mismatches, indicating a potential window for long-end credit investments in July [16][17] - It mentions that the potential space for credit bond ETFs could exceed 400 billion yuan, with significant interest from institutional investors such as brokerages and insurance companies [19][20] - The report emphasizes the growing investment value of technology innovation bonds, particularly in the context of their increasing issuance and the relative attractiveness of interbank technology bonds compared to exchange-traded ones [21] Group 3 - The report identifies the key clues in the convertible bond market as being driven by supply-demand imbalances and the spillover effect from pure bonds, with a notable decline in average remaining duration [25] - It warns that the convertible bond market faces potential risks due to high valuations, particularly in low-volatility bonds, which could lead to significant price corrections under external pressures [26][27] - The report suggests strategic choices for accounts focused on absolute returns, recommending a reduction in positions for low-volatility strategies while advising relative return accounts to shift to more balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds [28]