A股策略周报：齿轮开始转动-20250713

Group 1 - The report highlights that both Chinese and US stock markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by optimistic investor expectations regarding future corporate capital returns. A-shares are pricing in a stabilization of ROE at historical lows, while US stocks are anticipating continued growth in ROE from already high levels [3][12][14] - Since Q4 2021, A-shares have faced declining capital returns due to intense competition amid trends of "de-financialization" and "de-real estate," while US stocks have benefited from government debt expansion stimulating demand, resulting in higher ROE [3][14][17] - The report anticipates a shift in trends, with US capital returns potentially facing downward pressure due to tax policies encouraging manufacturing investment and capital repatriation, while A-shares may see a recovery in capital returns driven by anti-involution policies, stronger overseas manufacturing activity, and a halt in debt contraction [3][4][17] Group 2 - Three key catalysts for the stabilization and recovery of A-share capital returns are identified: anti-involution policies, overseas manufacturing activity surpassing service sector growth, and the end of the debt repayment cycle [4][23][31] - The report provides an example from the cement industry, where current operational rates are at their lowest since 2019, and a rebound in price indices is expected by late 2024, indicating a potential recovery in ROE [4][23][25] - The report notes that the demand for domestic capital goods and intermediate products is expected to rise due to stronger overseas manufacturing activity compared to services, with significant rebounds in excavator sales and steel exports observed [4][27][29] Group 3 - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices have outpaced ROE, necessitating a buffer for uncertainty in recovery rhythms. The report emphasizes that the internal industry structure is more critical than the overall market [5][36] - The report discusses the historical context of PB (Price-to-Book) ratios, noting that the current PB levels are not extreme compared to historical standards, but the low absolute level of ROE may affect the pace of PB recovery [5][36][38] - A significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with low PB ratios has been observed, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and banking, while traditional industries still show a high percentage of low PB stocks [5][38][40] Group 4 - The report suggests that the dynamics of capital returns are shifting, with domestic capital returns expected to stabilize and rise, while overseas capital returns may decline. This shift positions A-shares as more attractive compared to other markets [6][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as emphasizing equity over debt investments [6][46]