转债周度专题：对比2021，转债何去？-20250713

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market has reached a relatively high historical level in terms of index and valuation. However, currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, the space for new bond issuance is limited, and issuers have a strong tendency to force redemption, putting pressure on the price ceiling of convertible bonds. If the supply of new bonds continues to shrink, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side, which will also affect the high valuation of convertible bonds. On the positive side, the equity market is expected to continue its upward trend this year, and the small - cap style is likely to remain dominant, which is beneficial to the convertible bond market [34]. - It is recommended to focus on clause games based on the remaining term and performance and financial pressure. Low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. It is also advisable to follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery, as well as individual bonds in these industries [34]. - In the short - term, the stock market is expected to see a weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market. The issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high, but attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Clause - wise, it is recommended to continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions and be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and also pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. 1. 转债周度专题与展望 (Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook) 1.1. 对比 2021，转债何去？ (Comparing with 2021, Where Are Convertible Bonds Heading?) - As of this Friday, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 4,508.48 points, reaching a 10 - year high. The median price of convertible bonds exceeded 125.82 yuan. This year, the index has risen by 8.75%, outperforming the Wind All - A Index. In 2021, the convertible bond market also outperformed the equity market, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index rising by 18.48% and 9.17% respectively [11]. - In 2021, the outperformance of convertible bonds was due to three main factors: at the underlying stock level, the small - cap stocks led the rise in the equity market, and convertible bonds corresponding to small - cap stocks in dominant industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and cyclical industries had a structural advantage; at the valuation level, positive expectations for the equity market and high new - bond subscription returns boosted market enthusiasm, and institutional investors increased their positions in convertible bonds, leading to an overall upward shift in the valuation center; at the clause level, during the equity market correction in Q1 2021, some convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, enhancing investors' confidence in the price - repair function of the downward - revision clause. Later, high - quality convertible bonds announced no early redemption after triggering forced redemption, removing the "invisible ceiling" for bond prices [13][28]. - Currently, the convertible bond market is facing price - ceiling pressure due to issuers' strong tendency to force redemption. If new - bond supply shrinks, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side. However, the upward trend of the equity market and the dominance of the small - cap style are beneficial to the convertible bond market. It is recommended to focus on clause games and consider low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds, and also follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery [34]. 1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 (Weekly Review and Market Outlook) - This week, the market showed a strong upward trend, breaking key points. The "anti - involution" sectors were popular. Different days of the week had different market performances, with various sectors leading the rise or fall on different days [35]. - For the stock market, the current valuation of the A - share market has recovered. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the issuance pressure is not expected to be high. The return of incremental funds has driven the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. It is also recommended to focus on the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes such as AI computing power, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, low - altitude economy, data elements, and satellite Internet of Things; low - level science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and innovative drugs; sectors with expected recovery in domestic demand such as real estate, chemicals, and consumer electronics; and high - dividend sectors such as central state - owned enterprises, "Belt and Road" - related themes, and public utilities, petrochemicals, and precious metals [36]. 3.2. 2. 转债市场周度跟踪 (Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market) 2.1. 权益市场收涨，地产钢铁非银领涨 (The Equity Market Closed Higher, with Real Estate, Steel, and Non - Banking Financial Sectors Leading the Rise) - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The market style was more inclined towards small - cap value. Among the Shenwan industries, 27 industries' indices rose, and 4 industries fell. Real estate, steel, and non - banking financial industries led the rise, while coal, banking, and the automobile industry were among the top decliners [41][44]. 2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率微降 (The Convertible Bond Market Rose Sharply, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Slightly Declined) - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The average daily trading volume increased. Among industries, 28 industries' convertible bonds rose, and only the banking convertible bonds fell. Most individual convertible bonds rose. The price median of convertible bonds increased, and the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [46][53][55]. 2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 (High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds) 2.3.1. 分类估值变化 (Changes in Classified Valuations) - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds significantly increased. The valuations of convertible bonds with par values in the ranges of 0 - 80 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, and 100 - 110 yuan decreased, while those of other par - value convertible bonds increased, especially those in the 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan ranges. The valuations of convertible bonds in most rating categories and size segments decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from their lows [63]. 2.3.2. 市场指数表现 (Market Index Performance) - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength compared to high - rated ones. This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Since 2023, small - cap and small - to - medium - cap convertible bonds have achieved relatively high returns [73][75]. 3.3. 3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 (Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses) 3.1. 本周一级预案发行 (This Week's Primary Issuance Plans) - This week, 2 new convertible bonds were listed, and 5 were issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices and conversion premium rates of the newly - listed bonds were reported. Five convertible bonds passed the primary approval this week, with a total of 3 bonds being accepted by the exchange. From the beginning of 2023 to July 11, 2025, there were 86 convertible bond issuance plans in total, with a total scale of 137.972 billion yuan [79][80]. 3.2. 下修&赎回条款 (Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses) - This week, 6 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 announced no downward revisions, and 2 actually had downward revisions. Also, 8 convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 4 announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were in the put - option subscription period, and 23 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement subscription period [84][88][90].