主线未变，调整都是机会

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]