海外经济跟踪周报20250713：关税风险加剧，美元美债上行-20250713

Report Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Viewpoints - Tariff risks have intensified, leading to a collective decline in US stocks, an upward trend in US Treasury yields, a rebound in the US dollar, and increases in copper, gold, silver, and oil prices [1][9][10]. - Fed officials' hawkish stances have cooled the market's expectations for interest rate cuts [2][24]. - Trump's tariff policies have been the focus this week, with data indicating that tariffs were effectively implemented from May to June [3][30]. - The overall overseas economic situation shows mixed trends, with changes in recession probabilities, employment, demand, production, shipping, prices, and financial conditions [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market Weekly Review - Equity: US stocks fell collectively due to tariff impacts, while European stocks rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq dropped by 0.31%, 1.02%, and 0.08% respectively. The German DAX, Eurozone STOXX, and London FTSE 100 increased by 1.97%, 1.79%, and 1.34% respectively [9]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar rebounded, with the dollar index rising 0.91%. The euro, yen, and yuan against the dollar decreased by 0.7%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.1% respectively [9]. - Interest Rates: US Treasury yields continued to rise due to inflation concerns, lower - than - expected jobless claims, and hawkish Fed officials. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose by 2BP and 8BP respectively [10]. - Commodities: Copper prices soared, and gold, silver, and oil prices also increased. COMEX copper rose 9.5%, WTI crude oil rose 3.4%, and COMEX silver and gold rose 6.9% and 1.1% respectively [10]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were hawkish. Some believed that the impact of tariffs would be fully felt later this year or early next year, and new tariff threats might delay interest rate cuts [2][24]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled. As of July 12, the probability of a rate cut by September was 60.4% (down from 69.4% a week ago), and the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 decreased from 2.25 to 2.01 [2][24]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Tariff Announcements: Trump announced "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" for 25 countries or regions on August 1, with different tariff rates for each. He also announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1 and threatened a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [3][30]. - Tariff Implementation Data: In June, US tariff revenue reached $27 billion, a 301% year - on - year increase. In May, the average effective tariff rate was 6.95%, up 3.25 percentage points from January, and the effective tariff on China was 45.6%, up 34.7 percentage points from January [3][30]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - The probability of a US recession was 35% (down from 37.5% a week ago), and the eurozone recession probability remained at 30%. The US weekly economic activity index rose, while Germany's declined [4][42]. - The Fed's expectations for US Q2 economic growth remained unchanged [46]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, lower than expected and declining for the fourth consecutive week. The number of continued unemployment benefit recipients rose slightly to 1.965 million [51]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales increased, with the Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate rising from 4.9% to 5.9%. Airport security check - in numbers decreased but were higher than last year, and railway transportation volume declined [55]. - Mortgage interest rates rose slightly, and real estate market activity rebounded [55]. 3.4 Production - The US production sector remained highly prosperous. Crude steel capacity utilization and production were higher than last year, while refinery capacity utilization was slightly lower [62]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight indicators showed mixed trends. The Baltic Dry Index rose 15.8%, and the Panamax Freight Index fell 22.4%. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) dropped 8.5% [65]. - Export demand from Ningbo and Shanghai continued to decline [67]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices rose 0.29% to $3.157 per gallon. Inflation expectations in the swap market increased, with the 1 - year inflation swap rising 0.21 percentage points to 3.37% and the 2 - year inflation swap rising 0.11 percentage points to 2.93% [69]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure decreased. The OFR US Financial Stress Index fell to - 1.045, and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread decreased to 8.53%. The SOFR - ON RRP spread averaged 8.0bp [71]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week, key overseas events include US inflation data (CPI, PPI, import price index), US retail sales, and the US stock earnings season [76].