Guoxin Securities·2025-07-13 12:53Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in livestock, pet industries, and companies with low valuations in the pig and poultry sectors [3][4]. - The beef price remains strong during the off-season, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [1][3]. - The supply of pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued price stability in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights that beef prices are resilient during the off-season, while pig prices show strong support [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the price of live pigs is 14.70 CNY/kg, down 3.86% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 445 CNY/head, up 2.75% week-on-week [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The price of live pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14]. 2.2 Poultry - The report notes a reduction in parent stock and structural changes in the poultry market, with consumption gradually shifting upwards [1][15]. 2.3 Beef - The domestic beef market price is 59.23 CNY/kg as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.38% [1][16]. 3. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 of 0.53, 3.57, and 2.64 CNY [4].