全球资产配置每周聚焦：特朗普发关税函增加贸易不确定性，中美市场情绪分化-20250713

Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights that global trade uncertainty has increased due to President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on 14 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70% expected to take effect on August 1, 2025. This has led to a rise in commodity assets [1][8] - In terms of market performance, the report notes that the 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.43%, while the dollar index slightly rebounded to 97.9, remaining below 100. Asian stock markets showed positive performance, with the European Stoxx 600 up by 1.15%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 0.93% and the CSI 300 at 0.82% [1][8] - Commodity prices also saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.09% and gold by 0.71% [1][8] Global Fund Flows - The report indicates a significant inflow of funds into developed markets, particularly in the US and Europe. US fixed income funds saw an inflow of $9.51 billion, while US equity funds attracted $4.91 billion. In contrast, Chinese equity funds experienced a slight outflow [1][15] - Sector-wise, US funds saw inflows into financials, utilities, and technology, while outflows were noted in consumer, industrials, and healthcare sectors. In China, inflows were observed in technology, finance, and materials, with outflows in consumer, communication, and healthcare sectors [1][15] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The CSI 300 ERP decreased by 1 percentage point to 68%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ERP fell by 2 percentage points to 60% [1][8] - The ERP for major US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq is reported at 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively, indicating lower risk-adjusted returns compared to Chinese markets [1][8] Global Economic Data - The report notes that the global trade situation has become tense again due to Trump's tariff announcements, with tariffs on imports from the notified countries expected to range from 25% to 40%. Additionally, a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US was mentioned, although the effective date was not specified [1][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include China's June export figures, Q2 GDP growth, and the US June CPI [1][8]