Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-13 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural sector, particularly emphasizing the pig farming industry as a key area for investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the pig farming industry, suggesting that this will lead to improved profitability and stability for leading pig farming companies. It recommends focusing on high-quality pig farming enterprises with excellent cost management [3][4]. - The report notes a 1.1% increase in the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, outperforming the 0.8% rise in the CSI 300 Index during the week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the mid-year performance of the pet food industry, which is expected to show growth despite potential impacts from U.S.-China trade tensions [3][4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs sold by listed companies decreased in June, with a national average of 128.6 kg, down 0.9 kg from May. The report indicates that the industry is responding positively to policies aimed at stabilizing production and reducing inventory [3][4]. - The average price of live pigs as of July 13 was 14.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.7% [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a seasonal decline in chick prices, with the average price of white feather broiler chicks at 0.81 yuan/chick, down 29.0% week-on-week. The average price of broiler chickens was 3.05 yuan/kg, down 9.5% [3][4]. - It anticipates a rebound in chick prices as the market adjusts to avoid overproduction during the hottest months [3][4]. Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector saw online sales reach 12.26 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Despite challenges from trade tensions, the long-term growth potential of domestic brands remains strong [3][4]. Animal Health - The report indicates a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals, with 9,128 batches approved from January to May 2025. This reflects a recovery in demand for animal health products as profitability in livestock farming stabilizes [3][4]. Stock Performance - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the agricultural sector, with Guotou Zhonglu leading at a 61.1% increase, followed by Zhenghong Technology at 15.1% and Jinhai Biological at 11.1% [3][4]. Conversely, the worst performers included Guobao Pet at -15.9% and Zhongchong Co. at -7.4% [3][4].