策略周报：震荡中孕育突破动能-20250713

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].