行业比较周跟踪：A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报-20250713

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 19.7 times, positioned at the historical 78th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 29.5 times, at the historical 51st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.1 times, at the historical 16th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 39.7 times, at the historical 55th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 52.1 times, at the historical 69th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 137.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.5 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.5 times, at the historical 7th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - No industries have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices continue to rebound due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 15.5% and spot prices by 17.1% [2][3] - In the battery sector, cobalt and nickel prices decreased by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.1% [2][3] - In June 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a 29.7% increase [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The spot price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while iron ore prices rose by 2.8% [2][3] - The national cement price index decreased by 1.6% due to slow inventory digestion [2][3] - Glass prices saw a slight increase, with spot prices up by 0.5% [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.5%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor increased slightly by 0.04% [2][3] - Corn prices fell by 0.7%, while wheat prices decreased by 0.2% [2][3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in May 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to April [2][3] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 3.1% to $70.63 per barrel, driven by summer travel and power generation demand [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.4% due to rising consumption during the summer peak [2][3]