煤炭开采行业周报：焦煤期货持续上涨的原因探讨-20250713

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The continuous rise in coking coal futures since June, with the main contract increasing from 709.0 CNY/ton to 924.5 CNY/ton, is attributed to several factors including mining accidents, geopolitical issues in Mongolia, and strong domestic demand for coking coal despite the steel off-season [1][78] - The report anticipates a short-term strong price trend for coking coal due to limited supply recovery and sustained high iron production in July, alongside supportive macroeconomic sentiments [1][78] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - The coal mining sector has shown mixed performance over the past year, with a 1.8% decline over the last month, a 1.3% increase over three months, and a 15.5% decrease over twelve months [2] - Recent data indicates that coal prices at ports have increased, with a weekly rise of 9 CNY/ton [4][14] 2. Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal supply has seen limited recovery, with production capacity utilization rising by 0.25 percentage points, but overall supply remains tight due to ongoing geopolitical issues and seasonal factors [39] - The average customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased to 764 trucks, but is expected to tighten again due to the Naadam Festival [39][44] 3. Thermal Coal Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have been rising, with the Qinhuangdao port price reaching 632 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [15] - The demand for thermal coal is bolstered by record-high electricity consumption in southern China, driven by high temperatures [14][22] 4. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a "Buy" rating for most of them based on their strong cash flow and asset quality [9][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of these companies in relation to coal price fluctuations and production recovery [8][9]