海外经济政策跟踪：美国：就业市场暂稳，降息预期回落

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June[6] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls over the past three months rose to 150,000, indicating a steady labor market[6] - The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June from 48.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8, slightly above the market expectation of 50.6[8] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - As of July 3, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US was 2.37%, up 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation rose to 2.33%, an increase of 4 basis points[13] - Many Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate cut in July may be premature, with expectations leaning towards a potential cut later in the year[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will determine future rate cuts based on incoming data, with no commitment to a specific path[24] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone HICP year-on-year growth rate slightly increased from 1.9% in May to 2.0% in June, aligning with market expectations[18] - The core HICP remained stable at 2.3% year-on-year, while the Eurozone PPI year-on-year growth rate fell from 0.7% in April to 0.3% in May[18] - The unemployment rate in the EU27 remained low at 5.9% in May, unchanged from April[18]