宏观和大类资产配置周报：关注7月政治局会议-20250713

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, particularly following the recent political bureau meeting [4] - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with June CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and PPI declining by 3.6% [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an expected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan this year [19][20] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82% and CSI 300 futures up by 1.75% [2][12] - Commodity futures also saw significant gains, with coking coal futures increasing by 7.00% and iron ore futures up by 3.87% [2][12] - In the bond market, the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.67%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.27% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an asset allocation hierarchy favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash, indicating a bullish outlook on equities [6] - The recommendation for stocks is to overweight, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][6] - Bonds are advised to be underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][6] Industry Insights - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, leading the market with a 6.06% increase, driven by supportive policies [36] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, increasing by 3.94% [36] - The automotive industry faced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.56%, indicating potential challenges despite overall market growth [36] Economic Policy Developments - The government has introduced new employment support policies aimed at stabilizing jobs, including expanding loan support for maintaining employment [20] - The NDRC has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to promote employment among key groups [20] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance the inclusive childcare service system, which is expected to support family stability and economic growth [20]