华源晨会-20250713

Fixed Income - Rural financial institutions have become significant participants in the bond market, with their bond holdings potentially exceeding 13.6 trillion yuan if their investment ratio aligns with that of small and medium-sized banks [2][8][9] - As of March 2025, the asset scale of rural financial institutions reached 59.9 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend in bond investment [8] - The report suggests that the proportion of bond investments by commercial banks may continue to rise, driven by changes in the financing structure and regulatory requirements [7][9] Metals and New Materials - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to pressure copper prices, with short-term fluctuations anticipated between 77,000 and 79,000 yuan per ton [11][12] - Despite the tariff, low inventory levels and upcoming peak demand seasons are expected to provide support for copper prices [11] - The aluminum market is experiencing high price volatility, with current prices expected to range between 20,000 and 21,000 yuan per ton due to seasonal demand constraints [12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The storage industry is witnessing a significant increase in project bidding, with June 2025 seeing a record high of 62.8 GWh in public bidding capacity, a 228% increase year-on-year [17][18] - The report highlights the ongoing transition in the domestic storage industry, with expectations for supportive government policies to sustain demand [18] - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound due to the "anti-involution" plan aimed at reducing excess capacity and stabilizing demand [19] North Exchange - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange accepted 115 companies, with a median net profit of 81 million yuan, indicating a continuous supply of quality companies [20][21] - The North Exchange accounted for 65% of the total companies accepted across three exchanges, reflecting its growing popularity [20] - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the market, with recommendations to focus on stable growth companies and sectors with high dividend yields [22]