KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-13 15:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are on the rebound, suggesting a turning point in the market [4][12] - The fundamentals for thermal coal remain favorable, with a current price of 632 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal, reflecting a 3.8% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY/ton earlier this year [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant increases, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1350 CNY/ton, a 9.76% rise from the previous low of 1230 CNY/ton [4][20] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY/ton, potentially exceeding 700 CNY/ton if favorable fundamentals persist [4][12] - Coking coal is more influenced by market dynamics, with current prices indicating a state of overselling, and supply-side tightening expected due to policy changes [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The report highlights a slight decrease of 1.08% in the coal sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is 11.48, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Market Insights - As of July 11, the inventory at ports has decreased by 19% from the highest level of 3316.3 million tons earlier this year, currently standing at 26.89 million tons [3][4] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased to 2.148 million tons, driven by seasonal demand [4][19] Coking Coal Market Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal prices, with futures rising from 719 CNY to 913 CNY, a cumulative increase of 27% [4][20] - The average daily pig iron production remains high at 2.408 million tons, although there are signs of potential declines due to seasonal factors [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for investment in the coal sector, identifying four main lines for stock selection: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][13] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][13]