金信期货日刊-20250714

Report Title - "Jiaoxin Futures Daily" and "Analysis of the Reasons, Impacts, and Outlook for the Rise in Coking Coal Futures Prices" [1][2] Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, coking coal futures prices rose due to supply tightening and increased demand. The price increase will raise steel production costs and may push up steel prices, while also boosting market confidence in the coal industry and attracting more capital inflows. Opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks should be grasped [3] - A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is in an adjustment phase but the long - term upward trend remains. Iron ore, glass, and methanol have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [6][10][21] Industry Analysis Coking Coal Industry - Supply: Main production areas have tightened safety inspections, with over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia shut down for rectification in June. It is expected that production will decrease by 1.2 billion tons per year. The implementation of the "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 raised the coal mine production capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit. The supply of high - quality primary coking coal is tight, and spot prices have risen by 50 yuan/ton [3] - Demand: During the "peak summer power consumption period", national high - temperature warnings are frequent. The daily power plant consumption has exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate has rebounded to 82%, a new high for the year. The daily hot metal production has rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant operating rate is 73%. Steel mills' passive inventory replenishment has increased short - term demand [3] A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened flat and moved higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the late session and then falling back. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [6] Gold Market - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to reach new highs. It is advisable to buy on dips [10][11] Iron Ore Market - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and hot metal production remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it showed a rise and then a fall today but did not break below the support, so a bullish view is maintained [14][15] Glass Market - The supply side has not seen a significant loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories remain high, downstream deep - processing orders have weak inventory replenishment motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it rose and then fell today but the lower support is effective, so a bullish view is maintained. It is still waiting for the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] Methanol Market - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. This week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate, with 177,200 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period. A short - position strategy with a light position is recommended [21]