Changjiang Securities·2025-07-13 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]