朝闻国盛：市场震荡整理后有望再上一个台阶

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a further weakening in real estate sales, with new home sales in 30 cities and second-hand home sales in 18 cities continuing to decline, exceeding seasonal patterns and showing a significant year-on-year drop [5] - The "anti-involution" policy and high temperatures have led to a rebound in commodity prices such as coal and steel, while asphalt and cement production has shown some improvement, albeit from low absolute values [5] - Key upcoming events to monitor include the US tariff negotiations, the State Council meeting in July, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on July 31 [5] Group 2: Market Performance - The report indicates that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.09% over the week, and several sectors confirming daily and weekly uptrends [6] - A total of 23 industries are currently in a weekly uptrend, suggesting the beginning of a bull market characterized by broad-based gains [6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the renewable energy sector, the report notes the issuance of mandatory green electricity consumption responsibilities across five major industries, indicating a push towards renewable energy adoption [29] - The coal industry is experiencing a price surge due to high demand and supply constraints, with recommendations to focus on leading coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [16] - The AI for Science initiative is highlighted as a transformative force in chemical research, with significant market potential and the ability to enhance research efficiency [22][23] Group 4: Real Estate Trends - The report observes a significant decline in new home transactions in early July, attributed to seasonal factors and a low market volume, indicating a sluggish real estate environment [31] - It emphasizes the importance of policy support for the real estate sector, suggesting that the market is closely tied to economic indicators and government actions [33] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Outlook - The agricultural sector is projected to see a slight decline in pig prices, with an average price of 14.5 CNY/kg in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [34] - The report anticipates that leading companies in the livestock sector will continue to optimize costs, with significant profit forecasts for companies like Muyuan Foods [34] Group 6: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel sector shows mixed results, with some companies reporting improved revenues in June compared to May, while others face challenges [25] - Investment recommendations include focusing on brands with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Anta Sports and Bosideng [25]