Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) stance on both A-shares and Offshore China despite trimming the CSI300 12-month target from 4600 to 4400 due to lower earnings growth and a more conservative valuation [1][44]. Core Insights - The anticipated nationwide childbirth subsidy program in China is expected to boost GDP growth by 25 basis points (bp) annualized in the second half of 2025, although it may slightly lower GDP growth in 2026 [1]. - The report indicates a significant inflow of US$3.4 billion into Southbound investments this week, with Northbound holdings data suggesting US$3.3 billion inflows in the second quarter of 2025 [1][45]. - The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for MXCN and CSI300 are projected at 11.8x and 13.1x, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) growth estimates of 5% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for MXCN, and 21% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for CSI300 [8][43]. Summary by Sections Performance - The report highlights that Real Estate and GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) sectors outperformed, while Materials and ROE (Return on Equity) lagged [7]. Earnings and Valuations - The report revises the earnings growth forecast for 2025/26 to 9% and 10% respectively, with a consensus EPS growth of 5% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 [43][66]. Policies and News - Onshore exchanges have issued final regulations on program trading, indicating a regulatory push towards high-quality development in the securities industry [4]. Market Update - The report notes that trade policy uncertainty has eased, and financial conditions have loosened, which may positively impact market performance [35][39]. Sectoral Insights - The report suggests that sectors such as Internet/Media/Entertainment, Consumer Retail & Durables, and Tech Hardware are positioned for growth, while Energy, Chemicals, and Utilities are underweight [44][67].
高盛：中国每周动态_市场上涨 1%；媒体报道全国生育补贴；下调 2025 - 26 年 PPI 预测
Goldman Sachs·2025-07-14 00:36