住房总量增长、政策预期趋强，静待“击球点”

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's recent survey indicates a steady increase in housing supply and a strong policy outlook, contributing to a stable real estate market. The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes has shown year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, with second-hand home transactions gradually increasing [1][10][11] - The report highlights the importance of promoting a stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market, emphasizing the need for tailored policies to enhance market stability and meet public expectations for quality housing [1][12] - The report suggests that the new characteristics of the industry may strengthen market confidence in the gradual bottoming of the real estate cycle, with a positive outlook for Q3 policies focusing on urban renewal and supply-demand adjustments [2][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief, policy support, and demand improvement. It also recommends focusing on leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [4][13] - Suggested stocks include quality non-state-owned enterprises such as Longfor Group, Gemdale Corporation, and New Town Holdings, as well as local state-owned enterprises like Yuexiu Property and China Overseas Land & Investment [4][13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - For the week of July 5 to July 11, 2025, the transaction volume of new homes was 1.99 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 10.31%. However, there was a slight improvement compared to the previous month [3][16] - The cumulative inventory reached 111.47 million square meters, with accelerated sales across first, second, and third-tier cities [3][16] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same week, the transaction volume of second-hand homes was 1.75 million square meters, showing a month-on-month decline of 7.00% [3][25] - The report notes a decrease in the growth rate of second-hand home transactions compared to previous periods, indicating a need for continued monitoring [3][25] Land Market - The land market saw a transaction area of 2.668 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 39.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.73% [3][16] Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 5.30% [3][4] - The report also provides insights into the valuation and profit forecasts for key A-share and H-share stocks in the real estate sector, highlighting the performance of various companies [14][15]