反内卷：石化抓手或在控产能

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is facing a significant challenge due to the peak and decline in demand for refined oil products, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, rather than merely controlling new capacity [2][21] - The ethylene sector is experiencing overcapacity due to a large influx of new oil conversion capacity, which requires controlling new capacity and tightening project approvals during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][21] - The average profit margins for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 are expected to be below 50% historical percentiles, indicating a challenging profitability environment [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2015 Petrochemical Supply-Side Reform Policies - The State Council issued guidelines to strictly control new capacity in basic chemical products and to manage the construction of new refining and ethylene projects [9] 2. Achievements of Petrochemical Supply-Side Reform - China's refining capacity has grown moderately, with no significant oversupply until 2024, but a peak in refined oil demand is anticipated [10] 3. The Environment Facing the Petrochemical Industry in 2025 - Significant increases in production capacity for major petrochemical products have been observed, with ethylene self-sufficiency rising from 57% in 2020 to 76% in 2024 [15] 4. Possible Measures for "Anti-Internal Competition" - The petrochemical industry must focus on leading sectors such as refining and ethylene capacity, with a need for capacity elimination and project approval control [21]