烧碱：短期偏强运行，但持续性或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [3] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is expected to run strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of this trend may be limited. The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is due to previous production cuts in some plants affected by weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. However, the supply - side driver is hard to sustain as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, so the rebound lacks sustainability [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2496, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 820, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2563, and the basis was 67 [1] Spot News - On July 12, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa increased by 150 yuan, with an ex - factory price of - 350 yuan [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is driven by previous production cuts in some plants due to weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. But the supply - side driver is unsustainable as plants have resumed production this week. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and downstream is reluctant to restock at high prices [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June. Maintenance is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and previously maintained plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3] - Non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina caustic soda inventory is neutral, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to restock at low prices is strong [3]