工业硅：关注供应端变化情况，多晶硅：政策扰动，盘面波动放大

Report Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, and inventory. It also mentions macro and industry news, such as the termination of several photovoltaic EPC projects due to policy impacts, and provides trend strength indicators for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][3]. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Si2509: The closing price was 8,415 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 435 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 855 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 953,544 lots, a decrease of 515,042 lots from T - 1, an increase of 83,424 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 453,587 lots from T - 22. The open interest was 367,810 lots, a decrease of 13,427 lots from T - 1, a decrease of 22,832 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 220,774 lots from T - 22 [1]. - PS2508: The closing price was 41,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 5,820 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 878,217 lots, a decrease of 136,350 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 361,634 lots from T - 5. The open interest was 85,925 lots, a decrease of 12,676 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 8,591 lots from T - 5 [1]. Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on the benchmark. For example, the spot premium for industrial silicon against East China Si5530 was +395 yuan/ton, up from 185 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type recycled material was +5145 yuan/ton, up from - 2,670 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 1, T - 5, and 700 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled material was 46000 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, an increase of 10000 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 9500 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 149 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1004 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 120 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 970 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 1.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 5.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 3.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 2.1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.60 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 6.5 million tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory was 72.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.70 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8.58 million tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 4.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 27.6 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On July 10, the State Energy Group issued termination announcements for three photovoltaic EPC projects with a total scale of 352MW due to the impact of national new - energy policies. The Jiangsu Nantong 100,000 - kilowatt household - used distributed photovoltaic project was terminated because it could not meet the profit requirements of Longyuan Group under the influence of the new - energy project market entry policy. Previously, the 300MW distributed photovoltaic EPC project of Gangneng (Zhenxiong) New Energy Co., Ltd. was also terminated [1][3]. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend. - Polysilicon trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].