碳酸锂：基本面供强需弱，宏观与仓单扰动或反复

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Contracts: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 64,280, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 402,816, and the open interest was 322,860. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 63,920, the trading volume was 49,743, and the open interest was 106,621 [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt volume was 11,603 hands, a decrease of 1,588 compared to T - 1 [1]. - Basis: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 530, and spot - 2511 was - 170. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was 360 [1]. - Raw Materials: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 674, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,405 [1]. - Lithium Salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Price Information: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Project Plan: Lithium Harvest, a subsidiary of the US Sustainable Projects Group, plans to build a lithium carbonate production facility with an annual output of 9,000 tons in Alberta, Canada, using direct lithium extraction technology (DLE). It is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2026, doubling the existing lithium production capacity in Canada [4]. - Battery Export: In June 2025, China's power and other batteries exported a total of 24.4GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export reached 127.3GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8% [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [4].