棉花：基本面暂无新利空，注意外部市场影响

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Report title: Cotton: No new fundamental negatives, pay attention to external market impacts [1] - Analyst: Fu Bo, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0016727 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2509: Yesterday's closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.14%, overnight closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.14%. Yesterday's trading volume was 266,512 lots, a decrease of 20,816 lots from the previous day, and the position was 864,081 lots, an increase of 6,270 lots [2]. - CY2509: Yesterday's closing price was 20,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.32%, overnight closing price was 20,105 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.05%. Yesterday's trading volume was 6,860 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 22,605 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE Cotton No.12: Yesterday's closing price was 67.42 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.50% [2]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - Zhengzhou Cotton: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 9,850 sheets, a decrease of 32 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 234 sheets, a decrease of 10 sheets [2]. - Cotton Yarn: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 91 sheets, an increase of 40 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 7 sheets, an increase of 4 sheets [2]. - Spot Price Data: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 15,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Shandong Spot: Price was 15,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day [2]. - Hebei Spot: Price was 15,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 123 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day [2]. - 3128B Index: Price was 15,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day [2]. - International Cotton Index M: Price was 75.28 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S: Price was 20,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S Arrival Price: Price was 22,014 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan or - 0.11% from the previous day [2]. - Spread Data: - CF9 - 1 Spread: The spread was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton - CF509 Spread: The spread was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: Cotton spot trading changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis was stable. Most quotes for 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Machine - Picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 were at CF09 + 1050 - 1400, and the number of quotes below 1000 decreased. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck increased slightly [3]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market remained dull, and the actual demand did not improve. Attention was paid to whether the continuous price increase would drive downstream replenishment. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with most weaving factories in many regions reporting small and scattered orders and difficulty in getting large orders. Recently, due to the rising raw material prices, the grey fabric quotes increased, but the actual transactions were still negotiated according to orders [3]. - US Cotton Situation: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. The USDA monthly supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The USDA raised the 2025/26 US cotton production (due to the increase in planting area) and ending stocks, and also raised the 2025/26 global cotton production (mainly because of the increase in China and the US production), resulting in higher 2025/26 global cotton ending stocks than the data in the June supply - demand report [3]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]