宝城期货国债期货早报-20250714

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Due to the recent rapid recovery of risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the safe - haven demand for bonds has decreased. The possibility of the central bank cutting interest rates in the short term is low, so treasury bond futures are in a consolidation phase. However, under the general tone of moderately loose policies, the adjustment space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the logic of an upward trend in treasury bond futures is relatively solid, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the loose monetary policy environment and low short - term interest - rate cut possibility [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. The recovery of stock - market risk appetite reduced bond safe - haven demand. The short - term interest - rate cut possibility is low, leading to a consolidation of treasury bond futures. With a loose policy tone, the adjustment space is limited. Given weak inflation, insufficient domestic demand, and external demand affected by tariffs, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures solid. In the short term, they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5].