宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250714

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to run strongly in the short - term due to rising US tariff expectations and technical price rebounds [1][3]. - Copper is seen as strong in the short - term. Although the US tariff on copper may cause price drops, domestic macro - expectations and industrial support could provide strong support [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [3]. - Driving Logic: Market tariff expectations increased after July 9 (the end - date of the 90 - day tariff extension). US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025. Technically, the futures price stabilized and regained the $3300 level and the 60 - day moving average [3]. - Viewpoints: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: running strongly [1][3]. Copper - Price Movement: Last week, Shanghai copper decreased with reduced positions, and the decline was mainly due to the expected 50% US tariff on copper [5]. - Driving Logic: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1. Market concerns about the tariff implementation may lead to a closed US import window and increased supply in non - US regions. However, positive domestic macro - expectations, rising commodities and stocks, and strong industrial support could support Shanghai copper, and the LME import loss has rapidly narrowed [5]. - Viewpoints: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: strong in the short - term [1][5].