股指周报：美国关税豁免期延长，国内宏观预期强劲-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The US has extended the tariff exemption period for various countries until August 1st. The impact of US tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and there is a risk of emotional shocks similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and there are strong expectations for macro - policies before the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - The real - estate sales are seasonally declining at a low level, and the service industry is experiencing structural differentiation and a decline due to high summer temperatures. The manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, and there may be a decline in the third quarter. The PPI deteriorated significantly in June, and domestic anti - involution policies are expected to reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a recovery in prices [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally neutral, with marginal tightening. Overseas liquidity is also tightening marginally. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from an oversold position. The domestic stock market will receive south - flowing return funds, but there is an outflow from passive ETF shares. IPO and other equity financing are increasing, and margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, while the pressure of share unlocks is decreasing marginally [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical range. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad has further declined, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the broad - based index market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then decline. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures after a sharp rise this week. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, and short IF and IH on rallies, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of long IM and short IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Global Stock Market Performance: A - shares led the rise last week, while US stocks led the decline. The ranking of index increases is: ChiNext Index > German stock market > Shenzhen Component Index > FTSE Europe > Hang Seng Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Nikkei 225 > NASDAQ Index. Specific increases include: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [8][9]. - Industry Performance: The comprehensive finance industry led the rise, while the automobile industry led the decline [12]. - Futures Basis and Spread: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.56%, 0.46%, 0.56%, and 0.67% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.22% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF and IM narrowing slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.1%, 0.17%, 0.15%, and 0.33% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major index futures converging significantly, especially for IM [21]. 2. Fund Flows - Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds: Margin trading funds flowed in 20.78 billion yuan last week, reaching 1.87 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.25%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3065.57 billion yuan, an increase of 39.88 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 1988.43 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.09 billion shares from the previous week [24]. - Industrial Capital: In the first two weeks of July, equity financing was 19.42 billion yuan, with 3 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 3.98 billion yuan, private placement was 15.44 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.45 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing increased marginally. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 39.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.58 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. 3. Liquidity - Monetary Injection: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 652.2 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 425.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection in June, with a total of 300 billion yuan injected and 182 billion yuan expired. The overall liquidity supply is neutral, with marginal tightening [30]. - Monetary Demand: The net monetary demand from national debt, local debt, and other bonds was 193.14 billion yuan, 152.2 billion yuan, and 405.57 billion yuan respectively last week. The total net monetary demand from the bond market was 750.91 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high [33]. - Fund Price: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 4.9bp, 4.3bp, and 2bp respectively to 1.47%, 1.4%, and 1.33%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 4.1bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks rebounded by 3.6bp to 1.63%. The overall fund price rebounded slightly [36]. - Term Structure: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds changed by 2.2bp, 3.5bp, and 4.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year policy - bank bonds changed by 3.2bp, 4.7bp, and 3.7bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to flatten, and the credit spread between treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - Sino - US Interest Rate Spread: As of July 11th, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield changed by 8.0bp to 4.43%, the inflation expectation changed by 4.0bp to 2.37%, and the real interest rate changed by 4.0bp to 2.06%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 5.76bp to - 276.54bp, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly by 0.12% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Real - Estate Demand: As of July 10th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.549 million square meters, a significant seasonal decline from 3.329 million square meters in the previous week. The second - hand housing sales also declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real - estate market sales are generally at a low level, and the financial market expects the introduction of urban renewal policies [45]. - Service Industry Activities: As of July 11th, the average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities was 83.91 million, a 0.5% decrease from the same period last year but a 25.2% increase from 2021. The congestion delay index in 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week. The service industry economic activities are approaching a natural growth and stable level [48]. - Manufacturing Tracking: Last week, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed a mixed trend. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 0.39%, that of asphalt changed by 1%, that of cement clinker enterprises changed by 0.73%, and that of coke enterprises changed by - 0.3%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased significantly by 0.67% from the previous week [52]. - Goods Flow: The goods and passenger flows are at a relatively high level, with strong growth in the postal express and civil aviation sectors. However, the highway and railway transportation are relatively weak, and there is a risk of a seasonal decline in July - August [57]. - Import and Export: The logic of the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is coming to an end, and the port cargo throughput and container throughput have declined significantly. There is a risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in July - August [60]. - Overseas: The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes are still hawkish. Most officials support a rate cut in September due to concerns about the impact of tariffs. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, with a rate cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the rate cut times are expected to be in September and December [62]. 5. Other Analyses - Valuation: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.27%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week, and was at the 65.4% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 4.07%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous week, and was at the 22.4% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are at the 81.1%, 73.9%, 82.9%, and 65.7% quantiles respectively in the past five years, and the attractiveness of the valuations decreased marginally [64][69]. - Quantitative Diagnosis: According to seasonal patterns, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillation and growth with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There is a risk of the market reaching a peak and adjusting in the middle and late July. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on dips and shorting IF and IH on rallies [72]. - Financial Calendar: This week, China will release data on June's currency and real economy. Overseas markets should pay attention to the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the Fed's economic situation beige book, which will affect the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate path [75].