东海证券晨会纪要-20250714

Group 1: Market Overview - Global asset performance showed mixed results, with A-shares and European stocks performing well while US stocks declined. Major commodities like crude oil, gold, and aluminum saw price increases, while copper prices fell. The US dollar index rose, leading to depreciation of non-US currencies [5][6][7] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, consumer, and cyclical sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 14,762 billion yuan. Among the 31 sectors, 27 sectors rose while 4 sectors fell, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financials leading the gains [6][7] Group 2: Changan Automobile Analysis - Changan Automobile reported a wholesale sales volume of 235,100 vehicles in June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 4.81%. For the first half of 2025, total wholesale sales reached 1,355,300 vehicles, up 1.59% year-on-year [10][11] - The company’s new energy vehicle sales surged by 57.11% month-on-month and 6.31% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this segment [10][11] - Changan's global strategy includes launching the Deep Blue S07 in Europe and plans to introduce six new energy models by 2027, aiming for significant market penetration in various regions including Southeast Asia and South America [12][13] Group 3: Machinery Equipment Industry Insights - The excavator market saw a significant increase in domestic sales, with a year-on-year growth of 22.9% in the first half of 2025. In June alone, domestic sales grew by 6.2% [15][16] - Exports of excavators also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 19.3% in June, driven by improved trade conditions. The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue rising due to ongoing infrastructure investments [17][18] - The loader market also showed steady growth, with domestic sales increasing by 13.6% in June and a total of 64,769 units sold in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [15][18] Group 4: Technical Analysis of the ChiNext Index - The technical conditions of the ChiNext index in July 2025 are similar to those in December 2019, both having experienced significant corrections followed by potential upward trends. The index is currently facing important resistance levels that, if broken, could lead to substantial upward movement [21][22][23] - The index has shown signs of positive momentum with key moving averages indicating upward trends, suggesting a potential for further gains if resistance levels are surpassed [26][27][28]