EBSCN·2025-07-14 04:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of around 130 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 27% from 102 billion yuan in the first quarter [1]. - The company plans to spin off its overseas gold assets for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which includes eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania [2]. - The company is also set to acquire the RG gold mine in Kazakhstan for a consideration of 1.2 billion USD, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [3]. Performance Summary - The average spot price of London gold in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 3,090 USD/ounce, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, while the average LME copper price is projected at 9,445.5 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2]. - The company’s copper production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 570,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and gold production is expected to reach 41 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The lithium carbonate equivalent production is forecasted to increase by 2,961% year-on-year to 7,315 tons [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 470.6 billion yuan, 546.5 billion yuan, and 622.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 16%, and 14% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in gold and copper prices due to factors such as central bank purchases and supply-demand dynamics in the copper industry [3].