存单周报：1.65%附近，关注配置价值-20250714

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0707 - 0713): Near 1.65%, Focus on Allocation Value [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - end wealth management allocation overdraws the early - season market. When the 1y national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit are slightly priced up and approach 1.65%, their allocation cost - effectiveness can be considered [2][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing decline and shortening of term structure - This week (July 7 - July 13), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 42.713 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 8.339 billion yuan (from June 30 to July 6, it was - 0.282 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 19% to 25%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 40% to 23%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased from 73% to 58%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit narrowed to 8.88 months (the previous value was 9.75 months) [2][5]. - Next week (July 14 - July 20), the maturity scale will rise to 80.281 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 29.229 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 19.916 billion yuan and 41.892 billion yuan respectively, with 20.389 billion yuan maturing on the 17th [2][5]. Demand: State - owned banks increase allocation, and the primary market subscription rate declines - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and wealth management are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 5.4403 billion yuan and 6.8292 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of money market funds increased from 4.4696 billion yuan to 10.131 billion yuan [2][16]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to around 91%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 87% to 84%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 92% to 90%, state - owned banks maintained at 95%, and rural commercial banks maintained at 97% [16]. Valuation: Slight upward movement in primary and secondary pricing - Primary pricing: As funds tightened around the middle of the month, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased. Specifically, the 1M variety increased by 4bp, 3M and 9M increased by 2bp, 6M increased by 1bp, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 2bp, at the 19% historical quantile. The 1Y spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 12.03BP to 8.13BP, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 4.37BP to 5.99BP [2][20]. - Secondary yield: The secondary yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit increased. The 1M variety increased by 2bp, 3M increased by 3bp, and 6M, 9M, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit slightly widened, maintaining at the 17% historical quantile [2]. Comparison: Near 1.65%, focus on allocation value - The spread between medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit significantly compressed. The spread between the 1y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and the DR007:15DMA funds widened from 1.15BP to 6.49BP; the spread with R007:15DMA funds remained inverted, narrowing from - 8.47BP to - 2.44BP. The 1y treasury bond yield widened by 3.40bp, and the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly widened to 26.01BP, with the quantile rising from 6% to 7%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed from 14.69BP to 13.57BP, and the quantile dropped to around 7%. The spread between AAA medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit narrowed from 8.62BP to 4.30BP, and the quantile dropped to 15% [2][35].