铅锌日评：区间整理-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices in a range - bound and stronger consolidation, but high prices may limit upside potential due to reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disturbances have led to a rebound in zinc prices, but this may suppress downstream buying and cause inventory accumulation, limiting the rebound space. Opportunities for short - selling should be watched for when positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures main - contract closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 2,017 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 69.79% to 52,461 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.80% to 53,479 lots. The LME lead inventory was 249,375 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4.48% to 52,901 tons [1]. - Industry Operation: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.88%, down 1.6 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.5%, up 0.7 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.76%, down 1.07 percentage points. Inner Mongolia's secondary lead smelters under maintenance have no restart plan this week, and raw material supply and consumption limit production [1]. - Fundamentals and Outlook: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues, and finished - product inventory is rising. Demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,360 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the futures main - contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.68% to 129,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.44% to 107,632 lots. The LME zinc inventory was 105,250 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.57% to 8,873 tons [1]. - Industry Operation: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.29%, up 1.81 percentage points; that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.94%, up 4.80 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.84%, down 0.30 percentage points. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires but maintained its 2025 production guidance [1]. - Fundamentals and Outlook: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, and production is expected to increase. Downstream purchasing increased slightly when prices fell during the week, but overall demand remains weak [1].