五矿期货贵金属日报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The erosion of the Fed's independence is the main theme for future trading in the precious metals market. Expectations of a loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver higher, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 2.38% to 9232.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.58% to 3383.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.41% to 39.12 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 97.97 [2]. - For other assets, the US 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.08 percentage points to 4.43%, the TIPS rose 0.05 percentage points to 2.06%, the US dollar index rose 0.28 to 97.8731, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fell 0.04 to 7.2545. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, while the VIX index rose 0.62 to 16.40 [4]. Market Outlook - The divergence in the views of Fed voting members reflects not only their hawkish or dovish tendencies but also the significant interference of the Trump administration in the Fed's independence. Figures like Bowman and Waller, who support a July rate cut, are more influenced by Trump's stance on monetary policy than the current US inflation and economic situation. Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell and called for an immediate rate cut and even his resignation [2]. Gold and Silver Data Details - Gold: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.12% to 3370.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume rose 39.51% to 20.70 million lots, the open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.09% to 1143 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 0.03% to 773.56 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 9.26% to 29.02 million lots, the open interest fell 1.03% to 39.16 million lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 24.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold decreased by 0.99% to 484.62 billion yuan [6]. - Silver: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 3.85% to 39.08 dollars/ounce, the open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.12% to 15394 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.36% to 9040.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 141.85% to 168.64 million lots, the open interest rose 9.41% to 95.70 million lots, and the inventory rose 0.50% to 1303.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE silver increased by 10.90% to 233.59 billion yuan [6].