黄金:震荡上行,白银:突破上行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-14 05:08
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner, while silver is predicted to break through and rise. Copper prices are under pressure due to weakening spot markets, and zinc is bearish in the medium - term [2][8][12]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to move up in a volatile manner with a trend intensity of 1. Yesterday, Comex gold 2510 rose 1.12% to 3370.30, and London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3355.37 [2][7][8]. - Silver: Expected to break through and rise with a trend intensity of 1. Comex silver 2510 soared 3.85% [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Spot weakness is pressuring prices. Trump's potential expansion of 50% copper tariffs to semi - finished products may impact the US grid and data center construction. The trend intensity is 0 [2][12][14]. - Zinc: Bearish in the medium - term with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of both domestic and international zinc futures declined slightly, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons [2][15][16]. - Lead: Supported by peak - season expectations. The trend intensity is 0. LME lead inventory decreased by 3000 tons [2][18]. - Tin: Prices are weakening. Although the prices of the main contracts of domestic and international tin futures rose slightly, the trend intensity is 0 [2][20][23]. - Aluminum: Low inventory and a high virtual - to - physical ratio. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [2][25][27]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. The trend intensity is 0. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1 [2][28][33]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating. The trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of imported ore such as Carajás fines (65%) rose slightly [2][41]. - Coking Coal: Affected by news, it shows a strong - side volatile trend with a trend intensity of 1. The price of JM2509 rose 1.78% [2][55][57]. - Coke: A round of price increases has started, and it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of J2509 rose 1.50% [2][55][57]. - Power Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0 [2][58][60]. Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The fundamental situation is an oversupply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [2][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to supply - side changes. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - Polysilicon: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][38][40]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There are doubts about the复产 in the origin, and the market is driven up by macro - sentiment [2][5]. - Soybean Meal: The USDA report is bearish, and the weather is favorable, so it may show a weak - side volatile trend [2][5].