棕榈油：产地复产存疑，宏观情绪推涨豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: There are doubts about production recovery in the origin, and it is boosted by macro - sentiment [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking driving forces [2]. - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bearish and the weather is good, so it may fluctuate weakly [2]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures market remains volatile [2]. - Corn: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Sugar: It mainly conducts range consolidation [2]. - Cotton: There are no new fundamental negatives, and attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season has been fulfilled [2]. - Hogs: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,682 yuan/ton with a 0.51% increase, and night - closing price was 8,712 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase, and night - closing price was 7,998 yuan/ton. The daily trading volume of palm oil increased by 135,812 hands, and the position increased by 7,433 hands. The daily trading volume of soybean oil increased by 43,018 hands, and the position increased by 1,620 hands [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 80.736 million tons, with the ending inventory expected to be 15.038 million tons (down 13,000 tons from last month's estimate), and exports expected to be 46.163 million tons (up 220,000 tons from last month's estimate). From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and production increased by 35.28%. Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, and inventory is expected to increase by 6% month - on - month to 2.16 million tons. The US will impose a 25% import tariff on all Malaysian palm oil products from August 1. The US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.335 billion bushels, the ending inventory is expected to be 310 million bushels. The demand for soybean oil by bio - fuel producers in 2025/26 is expected to reach a record 15.5 billion pounds, and exports are expected to drop to 700 million pounds [5][6][7]. Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: The daily - closing price of DCE soybean 2509 was 4,101 yuan/ton with a 0.22% decrease, and the night - closing price was 4,110 yuan/ton with a 0.29% increase. The daily - closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2,976 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - closing price was 2,975 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 11, CBOT soybean futures fell to a three - month low. The US 2025 soybean production estimate was adjusted down from 4.34 billion bushels in June to 4.335 billion bushels, and the 2025/26 ending inventory was expected to be 310 million bushels (higher than the June forecast). The 2024/25 Argentine soybean production was raised by 900,000 tons to 49.9 million tons, and Brazil's remained at 169 million tons. China's 2024/25 soybean import estimate was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 106.5 million tons [13]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The daily - closing price of C2509 was 2,306 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease, and the night - closing price was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 1.00% decrease. The daily trading volume increased by 126,607 hands, and the position increased by 25,082 hands. The daily - closing price of C2511 was 2,273 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase, and the night - closing price was 2,263 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decrease. The daily trading volume increased by 4,487 hands, and the position increased by 6,396 hands [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou also decreased. The corn price of enterprises in Northeast China mostly declined, and the price in North China also went down. The price of imported sorghum and barley for different shipping periods was reported [16]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,060 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,810 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 181 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was 54 yuan/ton [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May. The CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. The ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21][22]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: The daily - closing price of CF2509 was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. The daily - closing price of CY2509 was 20,095 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, and the night - closing price was 20,105 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 20,816 hands, and the position increased by 6,270 hands. The trading volume of CY2509 decreased by 1,999 hands, and the position increased by 1,045 hands [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The pure - cotton yarn market remained dull, and the all - cotton grey - cloth market was also light. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly last Friday, and the USDA's monthly supply - demand report was slightly bearish, as it raised the 2025/26 US and global cotton production and ending inventory [27]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,442 yuan/500 kg with a 0.15% decrease, and the trading volume decreased by 70,386 hands, and the position decreased by 28,472 hands. The closing price of egg 2510 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg with a 0.42% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 2,996 hands, and the position increased by 253 hands [30]. Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 14,830 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 14,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 16,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 14,345 yuan/ton, the closing price of hog 2511 was 13,645 yuan/ton, and the closing price of hog 2601 was 13,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume of hog 2509 decreased by 18,841 hands, and the position decreased by 2,269 hands. The trading volume of hog 2511 decreased by 3,951 hands, and the position decreased by 326 hands. The trading volume of hog 2601 decreased by 816 hands, and the position increased by 575 hands [34]. - Market Logic: The futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The expectation of state reserves purchase has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to - late July. The impact path of this inventory rotation is more complex, and attention should be paid to the spot performance. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [36]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 9,060 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,170 yuan/ton with a 0.02% decrease, and the closing price of PK511 was 8,016 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume of PK510 increased by 7,006 hands, and the position decreased by 1,665 hands. The trading volume of PK511 increased by 2,267 hands, and the position increased by 1,040 hands [38]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, raw - material procurement has basically ended, and cold - storage goods are mainly traded. In Jilin, the price of 308 common peanuts is around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the grassroots raw - material procurement has ended, and inventory trading is the main activity. In Shandong, raw - material procurement has ended, and cold - storage goods are traded, with prices in most areas showing a weakening trend [39].