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高频数据扫描:听证会或定调关税、“反内卷”将稳定通胀
Bank of China Securities·2025-07-14 05:18
  1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July 31st hearing of the US Federal Appellate Court may set the tone for subsequent tariff frictions. If the court does not support the new tariff policy, more trading partners may announce counter - measures, causing greater chaos in the US financial market. If it supports, the market may be relatively calm. Concerns about stagflation risks and trading partners selling US Treasuries are the biggest risk points in the US financial market [2][10]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative will ease the inertia of low inflation. Since October 2022, China's PPI has declined year - on - year for 33 consecutive months, while CPI has stabilized. The downstream price trend supports the upstream to improve quality and stabilize prices through "anti - involution", promoting the narrowing of the PPI decline [2][15]. - The producer price index for means of production continued to rebound. From July 7th to 12th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased week - on - week, while the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased, while the prices of LME copper and aluminum decreased. The producer price index for means of production increased 0.60% week - on - week and decreased 8.01% year - on - year in the week of July 4th [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The US Federal Appellate Court hearing on July 31st may determine the direction of subsequent tariff frictions. The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on the US financial market, especially on US Treasuries and the US dollar exchange rate. Concerns about stagflation and trading partners selling US Treasuries are major risks [10][11]. - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell exacerbates market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. However, the uncertainty of US inflation amplified by tariffs will not fundamentally change due to the change of the Fed Chairman [13]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative can help ease the inertia of low inflation. The decline in PPI may narrow, and its rebound amplitude may depend on the stabilization of real estate and commodity export prices [15]. 3.2 High - Frequency Data and Comparison of Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names.