生猪、玉米周报:生猪上涨动力不足,玉米盘面破位下行-20250714
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 05:33
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the live hog market is insufficient, and the corn futures price has broken through the support level and declined. The live hog price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, while the corn price will experience a high - level correction and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [3][5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures fluctuated within a range. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg week - on - week. As of July 11, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 6.28, up 0.05 week - on - week [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot market showed a pattern of stability in the north and decline in the south last week, with prices rising first and then falling. Currently, local rainfall affects live hog transportation and some second - fattening is still entering the market, but as farms gradually resume normal slaughter in the middle of the month and terminal demand is insufficient in high - temperature weather, the market lacks substantial positive factors. The short - term supply - demand game will continue, and the live hog price is expected to remain volatile [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures broke through the support level and declined. The C2509 contract closed at 2,306 yuan/ton, down 2.21% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, down 14.7 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, down 18,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 536,700 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, down 5,500 tons from the previous week. The DDGS industry's operating rate was 42.96%, down 1.92% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 87,430 tons, down 4.27% from the previous week [7] - Inventory: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88%. As of July 11, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 890,000 tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price fell from a high level last week. The auction of imported corn cooled down, and the grain - holding entities accelerated their shipments. The market's bullish sentiment weakened, and the enterprise purchase price was stable to weak. The deep - processing profit continued to be in the red, the downstream industry's operating rate remained low, and the wheat substitution effect continued, resulting in a decline in corn's feed demand. In the short term, the corn price will correct from a high level, and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [8][9]